By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)
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Additional info for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)
Because experts usually share knowledge to some extent, judgments are often correlated, and thus the combined judgment of many experts carries less information than would be the case if the experts were independent. 8, no matter how large the number of experts is, their information cannot be greater than that obtained from two independent experts of equal capability. 3 Preparation of Background Information Background information for the experts includes both a description of the issue(s) and specific elicitation questions about the issue(s).
The meeting also provides for project staff, stakeholders andlor individuals from universities and consulting companies to present other relevant information. 8 Elicitation of Judgment from the Experts The purpose of the elicitation is to encode the judgment of the expert or group of experts in a PDF that expresses what is known and what is unknown about the parameter. Methods for conducting elicitations are discussed by Meyer and Booker (1991), Morgan and Henrion (19901, and von Winterfeldt and Edwards (1986).
Probability distributions obtained using judgment are subjective. They are employed to represent the state of knowledge about fixed quantities, such as uncertain model parameters, correlation coefficients, and uncertain correction terms accounting for potential bias due to uncertainty in model structure. They can also be assigned to describe the state of knowledge about the mean, variance and shape of model parameters that represent true distributions about which there is uncertainty. When the assessment endpoint is a true (but unknown) distribution of values, uncertainty due to the presence of stochastic variability and uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about fixed quantities should be evaluated separately.
A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report) by National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)